Right now some shorts appear to be taking the view that “if RH was a good short at , then it must be an even better short at ”.
But in fact, the share count has been reduced so aggressively (via share buy backs) that the market cap of RH is only up by 30-40% since April.
Moreover, this moderate rise in valuation is arguably not far out of line with the recent improvements in financial results (and outlook) as announced in September.
The September announcement alone saw the share price spike 45% in single day.
All that is necessary for Friedman to receive this payout is the financial engineering and ongoing reduction of share count coupled with even just very slight improvements in RHs business (in fact, whether real or perceived). Friedman did not waste any time in putting his plan into action.
Within just two days of that award (on May 4, 2017) RH quickly announced a $700 million share buyback to sharply reduce the share float.
If Friedman is successful, the value of the total awards to him will exceed $500 million.